Demographic Analysis

Introduction

The following report is a comprehensive profile of Blanco that includes information on key social and economic statistics such as population growth, industries, housing and workforce trends that are key to understanding Blanco. The purpose of this report is to provide community leaders with unbiased information about strengths and challenges of the community for strategic discussions about the future of Blanco. The analysis is divided into four parts: demographic and socioeconomic factors, employment and industry, infrastructure and transportation linkages, and quality of life.

All of the data collected for this analysis was compiled from published information including: federal, state, and local government agencies and private sources.

Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors

The most important resource available to a community is its people. As a result, gathering and analyzing data on the population to which the city is responsible is a critical function for knowing and understanding the community. This includes an understanding of the current and projected growth of the community, a socio and demographic profile of the people, and a brief review of data to demonstrate how the community lives.

Population Estimates and Projections
According to the 2000 Census, the City of Blanco grew from 1,238 in 1990 to 1,505 in 2000 reflecting an increase of 21.6 percent. In comparison, Blanco County grew 41 percent during the 90's, as evident by the new residential communities built primarily to the south of Blanco.

Table 2-1: 2000 Census Population Estimates

Source: US Census Bureau, DP-1. Profile of General Demographic Characteristics

The development of basic population estimates and projections between Census years is a challenging task. This important factor in population analysis has been complicated in that regional, state and federal population figures do not seem to completely capture or may overstate the impact of new and planned growth in the area. This analysis is further complicated by the fact that population researchers employ different methods for preparing population estimates as evident in Tables 2-2 and 2-3.

According to the Texas State Data Center, since 2000, the population in the City has continued to grow at an average 2.4 percent annually, nearly pacing the growth in the County. The current population estimate, January 2003 is 1,613 for the City and 9,040 in the County.

Table 2-2: City and County Population Estimates

Source: Texas State Data Center, October 2003, Total Population Estimates for Texas Counties and Places

Below are presented two very different population projections for the County, the first from the Texas State Data Center (TSDC) and the second from the Capital Area Planning Council (CAPCO). The TSDC estimate is updated annually for the County only, while the CAPCO model was completed in July 2002 using a regional econometric model.

Table 2-3: Blanco County Population Projections

Sources: Texas State Data Center, June 2004 Population Projections (0.5 Scenario) and CAPCO, July 2002, http://www.capco.state.tx.us/Regional%20Data/CAPCO%202000-2030%20Forecast.htm

Using historical information and assuming that the City of Blanco's population is approximately 15-17 percent of the county population, the population of Blanco may grow to the levels depicted in Figure 1. Scenario A and B refer to the use of the TSDC and CAPCO population estimates for the county.

Population: Age
From the 200 Census and shown in Table 2-4, the most notable comparison of age cohorts for the City of Blanco, the Blanco ISD region and Blanco County is that the City of Blanco is home to a higher percentage of persons in both the youngest and oldest age cohorts -- persons under 19 and older than 65 years than the ISD and county. The city also holds the lowest population of the age group considered to be the workforce, aged 25-44, indicating that the community is not a strong labor market.

Table 2-4: Blanco Population Estimates by Percent Age (2000)

Source: US Census Bureau, DP-1. Profile of General Demographic Characteristics and National Center for Education Statistics

Over time, the changes to the younger age cohorts for Blanco County are expected to remain relatively stable and steadily decline, while the older age cohorts are increasing, as shown in Figures 2 and 3. The increases in the older age groups is most likely a reflection of the impact of the baby boomers, of which the first of that generation will reach 65 years in 2010, and the continued attraction of seniors/retirees to the Hill Country region.

Source: Texas State Data Center

Source: Texas State Data Center

Population: Race and Ethnicity
The racial makeup of the City of Blanco is predominately white, with less than 3 percent of the population identifying as Black, Native American, Asian, Pacific Islander or any other race. It is important to note, the Hispanic or Latino population is captured as an ethnicity, rather than race. Therefore, a person may identify as White and Hispanic or White only. The percent of the population, in 2000, that identified as Hispanic of any race was 22.7 percent, while 74.4 percent of the population identified as white not Hispanic.

Table 2-5 depicts the racial and ethnic distribution of the City in 2000.

Table 2-5: City of Blanco Population by Race and Ethnicity (Census 2000)

Source: US Census Bureau, DP-1. Profile of General Demographic Characteristics

Educational Attainment
The decennial census provides the most comprehensive information about educational attainment for a community. According to 2000 statistics, educational attainment in the City of Blanco for persons over 25 years of age has improved since the 1990 Census in all areas. In 1990, 64.5 percent of the population over 25 years old held a High School diploma or better and 13 percent had earned a bachelors degree or higher. By the 2000 Census these figures have increased to 74.3 percent having earned High School diplomas or better and 16.5 percent holding at least a bachelors degree. Also significant is the percent of persons with less than a 9th grade education dropped nearly 8 percent during the decade, from 20.9 percent to 13.1 percent.

Comparing the City of Blanco to the State of Texas, statistically the City out performs the state through high school. Thereafter, the lack of Blanco residents continuing education and completing degrees drops below the state average.

Household and Housing
Data on households and housing characteristics provides additional information about the local population. In 2000, there were 633 housing units in the City of Blanco of which 91 percent were occupied. The other 9 percent vacant for a variety of reasons: for sale or rent, not occupied rental property, and seasonal/recreation property. As shown in Table 2-6, 65.3 percent of the housing units in the City were owner occupied and the average household size in 2000 was 2.46 persons.

Table 2-6: City of Blanco Selected Household and Housing Characteristics (Census 2000)

Source: US Census Bureau, QT-H1. General Housing Characteristics

Three quarters, 75.1 percent, of the community lives in single family homes, while only 12.2 percent live in multifamily housing. The explosive new development, as seen in neighboring Hays County, has not occurred in Blanco or Blanco County; however the percentage of homes built in the past decade, 17.1 percent, is significant for this community, where new development has been limited for many years.

Income
Table 2-7: City of Blanco Household Income

When other socioeconomic measures are examined, the residents of the City of Blanco are more prosperous than 10 years ago. Table 2-7 shows that the percentages of persons earning less money have moved into higher income brackets. For example, in 1989, three of four households earnings fell within the lowest two income brackets; ten years later, this percentage has dropped to just over 54 percent, while the upper income levels increased. The median income for the city grew 66.5 percent from $18, 657 to $31,071.

Employment and Industry

Analysis of Key Industries
The only data available on business patterns at the local level is the Census Bureau's Zip Code Business Patterns. County Business Pattern presents the number of establishments by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) code and employment-size class, but does not reveal the number of people employed in each industry.

Table 2-8: Establishments by Industry Sector (Zip: 78606)

An analysis of the data for the 78606 zip code, which encompasses the City of Blanco, shows that the highest number of establishments in the community were involved in retail trade (NAICS 44) and construction (NAICS 23) industries in 2001, the most recent year for which figures are available. (2002 data will be released in October 2004) The business patterns identified six manufacturing establishments in Blanco, these include: a retail bakery, brewery, truss manufacturing, plastic bag, flat glass and machine shops.

Note: Information regarding employment trends is omitted from this report due to regional skews in data. Employment trends, growing and declining industries in Texas are gathered and aggregated by Workforce Development Area. Blanco County is a part of the Rural Capital Area Workforce Development Board Area, which also includes Williamson and Hays County, two of the fastest growing counties in the State.

Table 2-9 represents the leading manufacturers and employers in Blanco County, as defined by the Rural Capital Area Workforce Development Board and the Texas Workforce Commission. The companies on the left represent area manufacturers, where as the right column list the County's largest employers by employment level (alphabetically listed.)

Table 2-9: Blanco County Leading Employers

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Analysis of Local Labor Force
The most recent civilian labor force estimates from TWC, June 2004, Blanco County had a civilian labor force of 4,165 which was an increase of 124 people since June 2003. This change represented an increase of 3.1 percent. Over the past 5 years, the employment numbers for the county have remained relatively stable and followed state and national trends, as the economy has gained and lost.

Table 2-10: Averaged County Employment Characteristics

Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Labor Market Information Department. Covered Employment and Wages

The unemployment rate, in Blanco County, for the past 5 years is provided in Figure 2-5. The lowest monthly rate for the county, over these years, was 1.4 percent in October 2000, while the highest rate 4.3 percent was recorded in July 2002.

Figure 5: Blanco County Unemployment Rates: 1999-2003

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Commuters represent another pool of available labor in the area: skilled workers leaving the community for work. According to the 2000 Census, City of Blanco residents mean travel time to work was 24.9 minutes, one-way to work. Table 2-11 shows both the number of workers reported to work inside and outside the county. 75 percent of workers leave Blanco County for work. The largest two groups of workers coming into Blanco County reside in Gillespie or Burnet County. Workers that commute from Blanco to another county primarily travel to Travis or Bexar County for employment.

Table 2-11: Blanco County Commuting Patterns

Source: US Census and Rural Capital Area Workforce Development Board

Quality of Life

Quality of life elements are these subjective factors may become the thing which sets a community apart from its neighbors and competitors. This section will provide an overview of several of the factors which impact quality of life, including education, cost of living, housing costs, crime and access to healthcare.

Education
Blanco ISD is the regional school district that serves students living in the southern half of Blanco County and portions of neighboring Hays and Kendall counties. The district has three campuses: Blanco Elementary, Middle and High School. During the 2001-2002 school year, 880 students were enrolled in the district, a decline of 5.0 percent from the previous two years. However, since 2002, there has been a significant growth in student population, with a current enrollment of 969 students. This growth has been accommodated with the construction of a new high school, but additional capacity at the elementary school is likely to be needed soon.

School districts in Texas are classified by Texas Education Agency (TEA) as either Exemplary (EX); Recognized (RE); Academically Acceptable (AA); Academically Unacceptable (AU); Unacceptable due to Special Accreditation Investigation (US); Unacceptable due to Data Quality (UD); or, Charter (CS). Approximately 50 percent of the districts in the state are rated Academically Acceptable.

The Blanco school district earned an accountability rating of "recognized" from the TEA 2001 and 2002, an improvement from the 1999-2000 rating of academically acceptable. These ratings are determined by a number of factors including student performance on the state mandated skills test and attendance. Table 2-12 shows the accountability ratings, student performance and demographics of the district for the past 3 years as compared to the Texas state totals.

Table 2-12: Selected School District Performance Ratings 1999-2002

Source: http://www.tea.state.tx.us/perfreport/snapshot/index.html

Crime
In the City of Blanco, there were .68 crimes reported for every 100 persons in 2003, an improvement from the previous 5 years of crime data from the Texas Department of Public Safety.

Table 2-13: City of Blanco Crime Statistics

Cost of Living

The overall cost of living is measured for an area where 100 equals the national average; therefore, a cost of living measure above 100 demonstrates a cost of living more expensive than the national average. It takes in account housing, food and groceries, transportation, utilities, health care, and miscellaneous expenses such as clothing, services, and entertainment. State and local taxes are not included. Table 2-14 compares these cost of living factors for communities within Blanco County, with the national average.

Table 2-14: Cost of Living Comparison

Source: http://realestate.yahoo.com/re/neighborhood/texas/

Housing Costs
The rising cost of housing in the Central Texas is an issue of importance for all communities in the area. However, given Blanco's history of land ownership and water concerns the issue of affordable housing is not as pressing for this community. More than half of the houses in the City of Blanco are valued between $50,000 and $99,000. The next largest percent, 22 percent, of homes are valued at less than $50,000. This may be due to age of the housing stock, or the influence of manufactured housing without ownership of the land on which the home is placed.

Figure 6: City of Blanco Housing Value

Property Tax
One factor that can have a significant impact on cost of living is property taxes. Comparing property taxes between Blanco and neighboring communities is complicated by the fact that the rate assessed varies widely depending on the taxing jurisdictions involved. Table 2-15 provides estimates of the 2003 property tax rates for cities near Blanco. Note: the cities of Dripping Springs and Wimberley do not charge cityl property taxes.

Table 2-15: Area Property Tax Rates

Sales Tax
The sales tax is a major source of revenue for taxing jurisdictions in Texas. The state sales and use tax rate is 6.25 percent. Under state law, local taxing jurisdictions are allowed to add up to an additional 2 percent to the state rate, for a maximum combined total of 8.25 percent. This 2 percent local tax can be comprised of a combination of taxes levied by cities, counties, special districts, and transit authorities. Blanco, like the other incorporated communities in the county, charges the maximum rate of 8.25 percent.

Over the past 13 years, the city's sales tax has nearly doubled, from 15.8 million in 1990 to 30.2 million in 2003. The county has also seen even greater results, increasing sales tax revenues 154 percent since 1990. It is important to note that the city's annual percent to the county's sales tax revenue has flattened and is currently decreasing; meaning the City of Blanco's revenues are not increasing at the rate of the county and contributing less to the overall revenues as in the past.

Figure 7: Gross Sales Tax City of Blanco and Blanco County

Access to Healthcare
Access to healthcare is often an important factor in community and economic development decisions. Blanco's proximity to Austin and San Antonio provides the community with access to a wide range of medical facilities, though these services are not available locally.

Physicians and Medical Personnel
According to the Texas State Board of Medical Examiners, there were 4 licensed physicians in Blanco County in May 2004. Due to the increasing nursing shortage in the state, the Texas Board of Nurse Examiners reports statistical information on more than the employment status of nurses, but also includes the home residence of nurses and the county of work. The Board of Nurse Examiners reported a total of 4 registered nurses (RNs) working in Blanco County in September 2003, and a total of 56 registered nurses living in the County. Of the 56 nurses in the county, 35 were employed full time, 13 employed part time, 3 were working outside of nursing and 5 were unemployed.